Meridian Macro

Independent analysis of China's growth, demand and policy shifts—connecting economic data with the structural forces shaping business conditions, investment decisions and the outlook ahead.

The Formats
Monthly

What changed, and what follows

Essential macro indicators, policy shifts and their implications for business and investment — read in composition, not in headlines.

  • Growth, consumption, investment, trade
  • Fiscal, monetary and industrial policy
  • Property, credit and the transmission between them
Quarterly

One transformation, in depth

One deep dive each quarter on the forces shaping China's next decade — from humanoid robotics and AI to advanced manufacturing, consumption and the energy transition.

  • Policy roadmap and the capital following it
  • Where value concentrates along the chain
  • Bottlenecks, execution risk and what they price
Recent Issues
Monthly Insight·October 2026 · September data & Q3 GDP

China can meet its 2026 growth target. It still cannot produce its way to rebalancing.

Q3 growth reached 4.5%, but industrial momentum continues to outpace domestic demand. This issue examines weak private investment, the divide between upstream and consumer prices, and the limits of export-led stabilization.

4.5%Q3 GDP growth, YoY
5.5%September industrial output, YoY
1.1%September retail sales, YoY
In this issue
  • Why production resilience is not demand recovery
  • Weak private returns and the investment slowdown
  • Upstream price gains, export exposure and policy choices
Request this issue →
Quarterly Deep Dive·Humanoid robotics

Where the value sits in China's robotics build-out

Policy has moved humanoid robotics from endorsement to early commercialisation. The opportunity is upstream — not with the robot makers competing on cost.

>90%CAGR implied to 2029
+60%Robot exports, first half
20mProjected labour gap by 2030
In this issue
  • The roadmap, and what it commits the state to
  • Three clusters, three distinct roles
  • The imported component that sets the cost floor
Request this issue →
"Export strength can cushion the transition, not complete it."
Monthly Insight · October 2026
Core Coverage
GrowthConsumptionInvestmentPropertyTradeFiscalMonetaryIndustrial Policy

Meridian Outbound

Tracking where Chinese capital, companies and productive capacity are moving — and what that expansion means for energy systems, supply chains and local industry in the markets receiving it. Indonesia is the first market edition.

Market Edition · Live Indonesia

Meridian Outbound | Indonesia

A working research layer for the China–Indonesia investment corridor — built around the questions conventional FDI statistics cannot answer.

Headline FDI figures tell you how much capital arrived. They do not tell you who deployed it, through what structure, into which part of the value chain, or whether the project reached financial close. Meridian Outbound is built to answer that second set of questions, continuously, for one of China's most consequential outbound markets.

What the edition covers

  • Who — Chinese investors, sponsors and corporate entrants active in the market.
  • Where — sectors, markets and the investment corridors that connect them.
  • How — the structures firms use to enter and scale.
  • What next — policy, bankability and emerging opportunities.

Who it is built for

Investors and lenders underwriting exposure to Chinese sponsors; corporates assessing partners, competitors or supply-chain shifts; advisers and institutions that need a defensible view of the corridor rather than a clipping file.

Insights On request

Analysis on the questions that decide outcomes.

Beyond the dashboard, Meridian Outbound delivers focused analysis from market entry through execution, with scope defined case by case. Typical engagements start from a decision already on the table — an investment, a partner, a market, a competitive move — and work back to the evidence needed to make it.

Additional market editions follow the same architecture as Indonesia. If the corridor you need is not yet covered, it can be built.

About Thoroughfare Partners

Independent research on China’s economy and global footprint.

Thoroughfare Partners provides China macroeconomic and outbound investment research, connecting policy, economic data and industrial developments with implications for international businesses and investors.

Work With TP

Need a clearer view of China — or where Chinese capital is moving next?

info@thoroughfarepartners.com